31 août 2007
Shiller: La Fed impuissante face à chute de l'immobilier
source: Reuters
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Dow Jones)--La baisse des prix de l'immobilier aux Etats-Unis risque de se poursuivre encore longtemps, et certaines régions pourraient même assister à une chute de moitié de la valeur des logements, affirme l'économiste Robert Schiller, créateur d'un indice très suivi des prix de l'immobilier, dans un article publié vendredi.
Amusant comme la dépeche US a été traduite de manière peu élégante.....
Housing woe could trip world slump
"The United States, as the premier example of a capitalist economy, has the potential to lead price expectations down in many countries," said Robert Shiller, in a paper presented at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's monetary policy conference in the mountain resort of Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
La correction immobilière aux Etats-Unis a le potentiel pour engendrer des anticipations à la baisse des prix dans de nombreux pays....
"It is not improbable that we will see such large real price declines extending over many years in major cities that have seen large increases," Shiller said.
"The examples we have of past cycles indicate that major declines in real home prices -- even 50 percent declines in some places -- are entirely possible going forward...such price declines have happened before," he said.
Il est possible d'avoir un déclin de 50% dans certains lieux. De telles corrections ont déjà été observées par le passé
Bush to Offer Proposals To Ease Mortgage Crisis
source: The Washington Post
President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. will propose changes to the Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance program that would allow more people to refinance with FHA insurance if they fall behind on adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer low introductory rates that can later rise, sometimes doubling a monthly payment.
Bernanke Prepared to `Act' to Stem Credit-Rout Impact (Update5)
source: Bloomberg
The Fed ``continues to monitor the situation and will act as needed to limit the adverse effects on the broader economy that may arise from the disruptions in financial markets,'' he said at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. ``Further tightening of credit conditions, if sustained, would increase the risk that the current weakness in housing could be deeper or more prolonged than previously expected.''
Aussi, l'ajustement immobilier français sera probablement moins brutal qu'aux Etats-Unis, mais plus long et plus douloureux.
source: L'Expansion
La France n'a pas connu, au sens technique, un développement des subprimes,
mais son équivalent à travers les subventions que l'Etat accorde à
l'immobilier (prêts à taux zéro, baisse des droits de donation et
succession, déduction des intérêts d'emprunts, dispositifs Robien et
Borloo...)
Aussi, l'ajustement immobilier français sera probablement moins brutal qu'aux Etats-Unis, mais plus long et plus douloureux.
C'était jean-Pierre Petit.....
30 août 2007
Rocky terrain ahead
source: The Economist
How much will the credit crunch hurt the world economy?
The long and the short of it
source: The Economist
In the past, liquidity crises have been solved by the emergence of a confident buyer with deep pockets, such as John Pierpont Morgan in 1907. But who could it be this time? Pension funds and insurance companies no longer have the flexibility, while hedge funds are facing tighter funding and the prospect of redemptions. That leaves the sovereign wealth funds of China and the Middle East. But even if they want to buy in bulk, do Western governments want to let them?
Shots in the dark
source: The Economist
STOCKMARKET investors come in all shapes and sizes, but in the current turmoil they agree on one thing: if in doubt about a financial firm, shoot first and ask questions later. State Street, a big money manager, is the latest to stumble into the line of fire. Its shares slumped this week on unsubstantiated rumours that it faced big losses in asset-backed commercial paper.
SIV managers dig out their manuals
source: FT
One by one, some of the off-balance sheet vehicles run by banks and asset managers that buy bonds backed by mortgage and other debt are beginning to breach their investment rules that could force them into a fire sale of their assets.
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland estimate that forced asset sales from two struggling SIVs and four troubled SIV-lites mean assets with a face value of up to $43bn worth are already at risk of flooding on to the markets.
Unsafe at Any Rating, CDO Speeds to CCC From AAA: Mark Gilbert
source: Bloomberg
Last week, Standard & Poor's butchered the ratings on $3.2 billion of debt from structured investment vehicles spawned by Solent Capital Partners LLP in London and Avendis Group in Geneva. About $254 million was slashed from the top AAA grade to CCC+ and CCC -- slides of 16 and 17 levels, triggered by their investments in mortgage-backed bonds.
Think about that for a second. You left the office Tuesday owning a AAA rated security. By the time you got back to your desk on Wednesday morning, it was eight steps below investment grade in a category S&P defines as ``currently vulnerable to nonpayment.'' Try explaining that to your pension-fund trustees.
Disasters, not Masters, of the Universe
source: The Times
Bankers should have foreseen their errors