12 novembre 2007
Currency Controls Return as Central Banks Fight Gains
source: Bloomberg
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks from Bogota to Mumbai are imposing foreign-exchange curbs to take control of their soaring currencies from traders dumping the dollar.
$100 Oil May Mean Recession as U.S. Economy Hits `Danger Zone'
source: Bloomberg
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Rising fuel prices that businesses
and consumers took in stride earlier this year may now be near
the point of pushing the weakened U.S. economy into recession.
Morgan Stanley's model of activity in the euro zone is now
flashing the ``risk of manufacturing recession,'' according to
Chief European Economist Eric Chaney, a former official at the
French ministry of finance.
Recession fears grow as inventories swell
source: Reuters
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Unsold goods are piling up in warehouses as the
housing meltdown and soaring oil prices strain consumers, raising fears
that already glum fourth-quarter growth prospects may tip toward
recession.
But last week, Chambers reported "dramatic decreases" in orders from
U.S. banks and predicted that demand from segments such as banking and
retail would remain "lumpy" for a while.
Wall Street's money machine breaks down
source: CNN/money
A golden age for banks and brokers has come to a sudden end.
The moral is clear. When Wall Street appears in genius mode, raking in huge profits on mysterious products and complex trades, the secret isn't genius at all. It's that hubris is running wild, and so is risk. And whether it's tomorrow or five years hence, risk will jump from the shadows, knife in hand, to cut genius down to size.
Alarmingly high" risk of systemic shock seen
source: Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors may not be prepared for the
real possibility of a further downturn in the financial sector,
and the risk of a systemic shock to the system is "alarmingly
high," analysts at Morgan Stanley said on Friday in a report.
"In addition to our above concerns, if we begin factoring
in escalating energy prices, the collapsing U.S. dollar and a
possible wobbling in the emerging markets, we become even more
convinced that the markets aren't braced for the downturn,"
Morgan Stanley said.
Some Wonder if the Banks’ Stabilization Fund Will Work
source: The New-York Times
“Will this resolve the basic issue of the assets of the SIV trading below what they were originally?” asked Steven Abrahams, the chief interest-rate strategist at Bear Stearns. “No, it defers the day of reckoning.”
The Coming US Consumption Slowdown that Will Trigger an Economy-Wide Hard Landing
source: RGE Monitor
Any recession call for the U.S. is clearly dependent on US consumption faltering.
Thus, a sharp slowdown in
consumption growth will be the last straw that will trigger an economy
wide recession. Expect Q4 growth to be 1% or below and this growth
further to accelerate into negative territory by H1 of 2008.
Wall Street finit en baisse, inquiète des dégâts à venir du "subprime"
source: Romandie News
En outre, le leader américain des prêts hypothécaires, Countrywide, a pour sa part indiqué aux autorités de régulation américaines que ses marges de manoeuvre risquent d'être limitées si ses notations financières basculaient dans la catégorie des investissements à risque, avance Peter Cardillo (Avalon Partners).
De l'inflation sans hausse des taux
source: L'Express
Si les pressions inflationnistes s'intensifient de part et d'autre de l'Atlantique, la BCE et la Fed devraient pourtant opter pour le statu quo monétaire au cours des prochains mois.
Yen shock may prompt next wave of market crisis
source: Reuters
And as dollar losses against the yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.