06 mai 2008
New Price Drop Could Imperil Mortgage Agencies
source: The New-York Times
But some financial experts worry that the companies are dangerously
close to the edge, especially if home prices go through another steep
decline. Their combined cushion of $83 billion — the capital that their
regulator requires them to hold — underpins a colossal $5 trillion in
debt and other financial commitments.
“It’s not irrational to be thinking about a bailout,” said that person, who requested anonymity, fearing dismissal.
The Short View: Crunchy credit
source: Financial Times
The historic correlation of banks' lending standards with employment, industrial output and fixed investment is strong - but lagged. Tightened lending standards generally lead to weaker economic conditions three quarters later. So the credit crunch could help the economy to spell out a W.
A credit crunch is deflationary so the two W scenarios may not be compatible. Both imply recent optimism is overdone.
Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200 (Update5)
source: Bloomberg
`The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly
likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate
peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle
remains a major uncertainty,'' the Goldman analysts wrote in the
report dated May 5.
Banks squeezing credit to consumers, businesses
source: MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumers and businesses found it harder to borrow money over the past three months, the Federal Reserve reported Monday, a sign that the historic credit crunch now hitting the economy is still worsening despite Herculean efforts by the Fed.
Negative Equity in Auto Loans and the Bust of the Auto Bubble
source: RGE Monitor
For the last few years auto loan lenders sharply loosened their lending standards, used aggressive, deceptive and predatory lending practices, allowed households to buy cars with little equity in them (as zero down-payment deals became the norm) and thus caused a bubble in car production and in car sales (individuals with cars too big and too many cars each) that was financed with a reckless lending bubble.
Sounds familiar? The car lending bubble was as reckless as the subprime and mortgage bubble. And now this credit bubble is going bust leading to rising default rates, significant negative equity in car loans (25% of all car loans are “under water”), massive losses to auto loan firms and a severe recession in the auto industry.
Il va y en avoir des 4x4 à vendre .......
Le pétrole s'envole vers les 123 dollars
source: Challenges
Subprime : les pertes de Fannie Mae bien plus élevées qu'attendu
source: Challenges
La banque NordLB à son tour touchée par la crise financière
source: La Tribune
Promogim annonce l’amorce d’un « nouveau cycle immobilier
source: L'Expansion
Un marché immobilier en voie de rééquilibrage et le démarrage d’un nouveau cycle ». La prévision de Christian Rolloy, PDG de Promogim, n’est pas optimiste.
La Fed veut éviter une aggravation de la crise financière
source: Le Figaro
Si les levées de fonds se soldaient par un échec, il est probable que le soutien de l'État aux deux agences se matérialiserait en monnaie sonnante et trébuchante. Dans ce cas, il pourrait en coûter entre 3 % et 8 % du PIB américain à Washington, comme l'évoquait l'agence de notation S & P au mois d'avril.