07 décembre 2008
Where have all your savings gone?
source: The Economist
FOR American and European savers it has been a lost decade. After two booms and two busts, stockmarkets have earned them nothing, or less, in the past ten years
This year’s figures are enough to put anybody off saving. American mutual-fund assets have declined by $2.4 trillion—a fifth of their value—since the start of 2008; in Britain, the drop is more than a quarter, or almost £130 billion ($195 billion). The value of global stockmarkets has shrunk by maybe $30 trillion, or roughly half. These figures put the losses on credit-related securities—where the financial crisis began—into the shade.
A growing line of the jobless
source: The Economist
This is borne out by the economic data for this recession. While
employment has declined steadily since December, real GDP as of the
third quarter was still above its level at the end of 2007. The
November jobs figures, though, point to a deeper recession than many
had initially expected. The signs from the wider economy are also grim.
Many economists expect the recession to continue until mid-2009, which
would make it a longer period of economic pain than that experienced
either in 1973-75 or 1981-82. Moreover, employment is likely to keep
falling after the recession is officially at an end. November may well
have been the 11th straight month when jobs were shed in America, but
it far from being the last
Bank of England mulls "nuclear option" of cash injection
source: Telegraph
In what would be a major departure for British monetary policy, the Bank is
considering pressing the button on printing presses by engaging in a
so-called policy of quantitative easing. It emerged after the Monetary
Policy Committee cut borrowing costs by 1pc to just 2pc - the lowest level
since 1951.
However, added weight was given to the proposals by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who seemed to hint in the press conference to announce the ECB's 75 basis point rate cut yesterday that it may also consider "nuclear options".
La Bourse de Paris replonge sous les 3.000 points, la récession s'installe
source: Boursorama
La Bourse de Paris a replongé cette semaine, terminant avec une chute de plus de 5% vendredi, dans un marché paniqué par des indicateurs économiques désastreux aux Etats-unis et qui continue de naviguer à vue faute de visibilité
Les rois déchus de la finance tirent un trait sur leurs primes mirobolantes
source: Boursorama
Oubliés les
milliards qui pleuvaient sur Wall Street en fin d'année: saignées par
la crise, soumises à la pression des autorités, les banques ont fermé
le robinet des primes versées aux cadres, imitées par les autres
secteurs en difficulté, à commencer par l'automobile.
quand la crise
se propage aux autres secteurs, l'austérité suit. Dans l'industrie
automobile, confrontée à l'effondrement de ses ventes, General Motors a
décidé dès le mois de juillet de supprimer les bonus pour ses cadres
dirigeants. Au Japon, Toyota a annoncé mardi qu'il allait amputer de
10% les primes hivernales de ses cadres
GM, Chrysler Bankruptcy Financing Would Be Double Bailout Loan
source: Bloomberg
Unfortunately, this traditional loan, even for $18 billion, is inadequate and is destined to fail in the current environment and will likely be followed by additional requests for more rescue funds or a bankruptcy petition,” said Altman. He urged the government to push banks that received other bailout aid to provide needed bankruptcy loans for carmakers.
1930s beggar-thy-neighbour fears as China devalues
source: The Telegraph
Hans Redeker, currency head at BNP Paribas, said China's policy switch could set off a dangerous chain of events. "If they play this beggar-thy-neighbour game, it will cause a deflationary shock for the whole world," he said.
China has relied on exports to North America and Europe as its growth engine, making it acutely vulnerable to the contraction in global demand. Mr Pettis said this recalls the role played by the US in the 1920s, a parallel fraught with danger. "In the 1930s the US foolishly tried to dump capacity abroad, but the furious reaction of trading partners caused the strategy to misfire. China already seems to be in the process of engineering its own Smoot-Hawley," he said, referring to the infamous US Tariff Act in 1930.
Deflation virus is moving the policy test beyond the 1930s extremes
source: Telegraph
We are beyond the extremes of the 1930s. The frontiers of monetary policy are being pushed to limits that may now test viability of paper currencies and modern central banking.
The Fed can acquire houses, stocks, or a herd of Texas Longhorn cattle if it
wants. It can even scatter $100 bills from helicopters. (Actually, Japan is
about to do this with shopping coupons).
No doubt, such reflation a l’outrance can “work”, but what is the exit
strategy? The policy leaves behind a liquidity lake. The risk is that this
will flood the system once the credit pipes are unblocked. The economy could
flip abruptly from deflation to hyper-inflation.
Debt Watchdogs: Tamed or Caught Napping?
source: The New-York Times
“These errors make us look either incompetent at
credit analysis or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a
little bit of both.”
A Moody’s managing director responding anonymously to an internal management survey, September 2007.
Un joli article du NYT sur l'agence de notation Moody's.....
When a job disappears, so does the health care
source: International Herald Tribune
About 10.3 million Americans were unemployed in November, according to
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of unemployed has increased
by 2.8 million, or 36 percent, since January of this year, and by 4.3
million, or 71 percent, since January 2001.
Some parts of the U.S. government safety net are more responsive to
economic distress. The number of people on food stamps set a record in
September, with 31.6 million people receiving benefits, up by two
million in one month.
Nearly 4.4 million people are receiving unemployment insurance benefits, an increase of 60 percent in the past year. But more than half of unemployed workers are not receiving help because they do not qualify or have exhausted their benefits.