22 mai 2008
Coface voit le "début d'une crise du crédit" inter entreprises en France
source: Les Echos
21 mai 2008
How will financial institutions make money now that the securitization food chain is broken?
source: RGE Monitor
So how will mortgage
brokers, banks, broker dealers, monoline insurers, rating agencies
generate revenues and profits now that this slice & dice scheme has
unraveled? The current market delusion that the worst is behind us for
financial institutions is based on the view that most of the writedowns
of the toxic assets have already been done. But this is not just a
balance sheet problem. Now financial institutions have a more severe
P&L problem, i.e. how to generate income and earnings from now on
when they cannot originate junk any more.... May they will
have to go back to old fashioned banking: carefully assess the
creditworthiness of their borrowers, lend on sensible terms and hold a
good part of the credit risk now that the easy fee/profit generating
machine of securitization is terminally broken.
Pourquoi la Crise n'est pas finie selon N. Roubini parce que les banques doivent repenser leur business-model et probablement retourner au bon vieux business: garder les risques....
19 mai 2008
Fed's Direct Loans to Banks Climb to Record Level (Update2)
source: Bloomberg
``The Fed is providing an extraordinary amount of liquidity through various mechanisms,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. While ``credit markets are showing signs of improvement'' there is ``a long way to go,'' he said.
La crise du crédit est en cours, selon Trichet
source: L'Expansion
Dans un entretien donné lundi à la BBC, le président de la Banque centrale européenne se fait pessimiste. Pour Jean-Claude Trichet, « la crise du crédit est en cours », et « rien n’indique que le pire est derrière nous ».
18 mai 2008
Hollywood bust as celebrities feel the credit crunch
source: Times
Even those who aren’t selling may be losing money. According to the report, the heiress Paris Hilton’s pad in Beverly Hills, which she bought for $6m last summer, is losing $64,500 a month in value. At least Hilton is doing better than Sharon Stone – the report found that the value of the 50-year-old actress’s home in the Hills plunged by $740,000 in March alone
09 mai 2008
A Fear of Big Demand for Corporate Loans
source: The New-York Times
Geraud Charpin, the head of European credit strategy for UBS, said banks faced a quandary. While making loans is the bread and butter of banks, many of the revolving lines were negotiated before the credit crisis erupted last summer and carry relatively low interest rates that would be unprofitable for banks now.
There’s a lot of people out there concerned that banks will not have the capacity to front all of their commitments if everybody drew them down,” said an executive at a large real estate investment trust.
Zone euro/Les banques ont durci les conditions du crédit à cause de la crise
source: Zwiss.info.ch
Une telle situation n'avait plus été observée depuis début 2003, commente Valli Marco, analyste chez UniCredit. Pour la première fois depuis trois ans, les demandes de crédit des entreprises ont reculé, celles pour les prêts immobiliers ont atteint un creux historique et les consommateurs se sont montrés peu enclins à consommer, relève-t-il
08 mai 2008
Buy when bankers move from denial to depression
source: Financial Times
The Kübler-Ross thesis describes successive stages of denial, anger,
negotiation, depression and acceptance. From banks, we have seen the
phases of denial and anger. Denial that things were really serious.
Anger that the authorities had not acted promptly enough to bail the
industry out.
Kübler-Ross explained that the negotiation phase is followed by
depression, its frequent symptoms a combination of lethargy and
ineffectual activity.
07 mai 2008
Le crédit immobilier se porte bien… pour l’instant
source: Capital
Explication : les acheteurs les plus riches sont souvent déjà propriétaires et ont actuellement du mal à revendre leur bien. ....Conséquence, les ménages à revenus modestes deviennent les principaux souscripteurs de prêts immobiliers.
Avec ce commentaire prophétique « Finalement, ceux qui pronostiquent depuis le début des années 2 000 un recul brutal des marchés et une baisse des prix des logements pourraient finir par avoir raison si l’offre de crédits continuait à reculer … mais pas du tout pour les raisons qu’ils avançaient, bien au contraire. »
06 mai 2008
The Short View: Crunchy credit
source: Financial Times
The historic correlation of banks' lending standards with employment, industrial output and fixed investment is strong - but lagged. Tightened lending standards generally lead to weaker economic conditions three quarters later. So the credit crunch could help the economy to spell out a W.
A credit crunch is deflationary so the two W scenarios may not be compatible. Both imply recent optimism is overdone.